The benchmark S&P 500 rose to a record closing high on Thursday, as investors assessed a mixed bag of corporate earnings and digested comments from President Donald Trump, including a call for cuts
in interest rates and oil prices.
At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Trump demanded
that OPEC lower oil prices and that central banks reduce interest rates, while he warned global business leaders they will face tariffs for products made outside of the U.S.
While investors have been cautiously monitoring Trump's comments about tariffs, they "like the idea of interest rates coming down, of oil prices coming down," said Lindsey Bell, chief strategist
at 248 Ventures.
"All in all, the market is optimistic the more they hear about Trump policies. We're just seeing a reflection of that optimism," said Bell.
The executive order Trump signed sets up a crypto working group that is expected to propose a federal regulatory framework governing the issuance and operation of digital assets. It also calls for
the group to evaluate “the potential creation and maintenance of a national digital-asset stockpile, and propose criteria for establishing such a stockpile.”
Yesterday, WTI crude oil slipped toward $75 per barrel on Thursday as President Donald Trump delivered a virtual address at the Davos forum. In his speech, Trump announced plans to ask Saudi Arabia
and OPEC to lower oil prices, emphasizing his administration's energy priorities. He highlighted early executive actions, including declaring a national energy emergency to "unlock the liquid gold" of US oil and gas, exiting the Paris climate agreement, and
ending what he called the “green new scam.”
From: TS Douglas <toddsdouglas@outlook.com>
Sent: Thursday, January 23, 2025 8:25 AM
Subject: Premarket Trading Notes: Thursday, January 23
Markets
Premarket Futures:
DOW +0.08% S&P -0.11% NASDAQ -0.50% 10YR +2 bps Gold -0.82% Crude +0.23% BTC
Yesterday was a tech stock-driven market after unbridled enthusiasm drove any company in the data center business to new heights, and
NFLX (+10%) blew out its earnings and subscriber numbers. The S&P, driven by its 30% mix of cap-weighted technology stocks, rose 0.61%, while the NASDAQ, a 55% mix of technology stocks, climbed 1.28%.
Today, the markets look to take a breather at the open after yesterday’s rally and this morning’s rise in treasury yields, the USD.
Stay Tuned:
Today, at 11:00 AM ET (5:00 PM Davos), President Trump will address the World Economic Forum (WEF). Global markets will be listening closely for details on his pledge for universal tariffs and his geopolitical and economic positions on China,
Russia, Israel, etc. Secondary issues may include the Paris Accord (climate change) and the funding of NATO (a budget buster for deficit-laden European countries).
Bitcoin bulls may appreciate our valuation notes below.
Market Movers
VIX: 15.14 (+0.04)
Below 18 is positive.
Treasuries: 3M 4.32
(+1 bp) 2YR 4.30 ( -- ) 5YR 4.46
(+1 bp) 10YR 4.64 (+2 bps) 30YR 4.85
(+3 bps)
- * Trump’s expansionary fiscal policy chatter continues to drive inflationary chatter.
- * The market continues to price in a 25 bps rate cut in the 3Q.
- *
Currencies: USD Basket/DXY 108.217(-0.039)
- * The USD remains elevated above 105.
Precious Metal Futures: Gold 2,744 (-25.91)
Silver 30.55 (-0.88) Copper 4.275 (-0.025)
- * Gold prices have been supported by inflation concerns and a weaker USD resulting from tariff threats.
Energy Futures: WTI 75.45 (+0.06)
Brent 79.10 (+0.10) Nat Gas 4.020 (+0.059) Gasoline RBOB 2.066 (+0.009)
- * Interesting: Crude futures rose despite a 1M increase in stockpiles. Is the market compensating for the loss of Russian supplies?
Crypto: BTC 102,062 (-2.0%)
ETH 3,225 (-1.90%) SOL 246.67 (-5.0%) IBIT 58.03 (-$1.35)
- * Bitcoin (BTC) remains in a bullish cycle. However, technicals indicate that the digital
asset is consolidating in the $92K - $106K range, which is somewhat of a Hold signal. As we have seen recently, traders have been buying at ~$90K and selling above $100K. A decisive breakout above $108K is needed to move the target range to $118K - $120K.
What could push BTC through resistance? The announcement of a US bitcoin reserve. (sources: MarketVector Indexes, Fairlead Strategies) The risk to bullish views is macroeconomic, i.e., higher treasury yields and a stronger USD would pressure all risk assets.
- *
Economic Reports
|
23-Jan |
Report |
Period |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
8:30 AM |
Initial jobless claims
meh, mostly in line |
Jan 18 |
233K |
215,000 |
217,000 |
|
11:00 AM |
President Trump to speak at the WEF |
|
|
|
|
|
24-Jan |
Report |
Period |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
10:00 AM |
Existing Home Sales |
Dec. |
|
4.2M |
4.15M |
|
10:00 AM |
Consumer Sentiment (final) |
Jan. |
|
73.2 |
73.2 |
|
9:45 AM |
S&P Flash US Services PMI |
Jan. |
|
-- |
56.8 |
|
9:45 AM |
S&P Flash US Manufacturing PMI |
Jan. |
|
-- |
49.4 |
- * Outstanding claims rose by 46,000 to 1,899,000 in the earlier period, the most since Nov. 2021, suggesting
that those without jobs are taking a longer time to find suitable employment.
- * We note the effect the CA fires, Xmas retail sales layoffs, etc., have on unemployment.
- * The UK is a mess. The UK manufacturing sector dropped to -47 in Jan., the steepest
decline in over two years. Manufacturing output decreased, and new orders fell, especially for exports, which saw their fastest drop since
2020. Manufacturers expect these trends to worsen in the next quarter.
Ideas
BTO SPY Jan 29 $608 Puts
The alternative trade is
BTO Jan 29 $603 Calls
Support: $603/Resistance: $608
Stargate AI Trades: Yesterday, we failed to add Broadcom (AVGO, $240.91), Arista Networks (ANET, $129.82
), and Seagate (STX, $108.18) to the list of potential Stargate beneficiaries. Our favorite remains ARM (ARM, $197.93).
Disclaimer: You are responsible for your trading activity and investment decisions. These comments are for educational and informational
purposes only. They should not be relied upon as a form of personalized investment advice. Information in this email and websites is neither an offer nor a recommendation to buy or sell securities, options on equities,
or cryptocurrency. Investing in securities is speculative and carries high risk; you may lose some, all, or possibly more than your original investment.